The 10 football picks backed by the most podcasts went 3-7

Only three of those ten picks won. Across the 182 podcast picks behind them, 49 won and 133 lost. Four of the five most-backed NFL totals won.

Weekly record

1,134 wins1,291 losses12 pushes

Win rate

46.8%

Decisions

2,425

Shows

145

Picks settled September 14-20 UTC. Each decision is one podcast pick; one game can have many. The results describe this week, not future performance or profit.

College football finished even; the NFL board did not

NFL

44.5%

634-791-3 · 1,425 decisions · 115 shows

College football

50.0%

500-500-9 · 1,000 decisions · 64 shows

The four large football markets

These groups each have at least 100 decided picks. Other markets remain in the weekly record.

LeagueMarketRecordDecisionsWin rate
NFLTotals94-74-116856.0%
College footballSpreads362-337-969951.8%
College footballTotals60-6312348.8%
NFLSpreads304-358-266245.9%

The picks with the most podcast support

The 10 highest-support picks were ranked by the number of distinct shows making the same selection, before results were checked. Each show counts once per exact pick. Three won and seven lost.

Every selection in both lists is for the full game. Source episodes link a few examples per pick so you can inspect the calls. Support counts include every qualifying show, not just the linked examples.

How those picks fit into the week

Shows backing the top ten picks

26.9%

49 wins133 losses

182 show picks

All other podcast decisions

48.4%

1,085 wins1,158 losses12 pushes

2,243 decisions

These groups do not overlap. Together they make the full weekly record: 1,134 wins, 1,291 losses and 12 pushes.

The five most-supported NFL totals

Four of these five exact totals won (80%). They were ranked by show support before results were checked.

Under 43.5

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

Source episodes (2 examples)
11 showsWIN

Over 50.5

Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys

Source episodes (2 examples)
9 showsWIN

Under 48.5

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

Source episodes (2 examples)
8 showsWIN

Over 53.5

Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills

Source episodes (2 examples)
7 showsWIN

Over 48

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

Source episodes (2 examples)
5 showsLOSS

Across all NFL totals: 94-74-1. Without the biggest contributing show (19 decisions): 83-66-1, or 55.7% across 149 decisions.

Across all comparable picks, a smaller difference

Counting each show's pick lowers the win rate from 48.8% to 45.3%, a 3.5-percentage-point difference. Support leaned toward losing picks, but the broad picture changes little: fewer than half won either way.

This comparison uses 1,162 of the week's 2,437 recorded picks, including pushes. It covers spreads, totals and moneylines we could match reliably across shows, with repeat mentions counted once per show. All other picks remain in the weekly scoreboard.

How the two counting methods compare

Each distinct pick counted once

48.8%

414 decided picks; 418 including pushes

202 wins212 losses4 pushes

Each show's pick counted once

45.3%

1,158 decided show picks; 1,162 including pushes

525 wins633 losses4 pushes

Houston Texans -2.5 lost. That is one loss when counting the pick once, or 28 losses when counting each show that backed it.

  • Higher when counting shows: winning picks had more show support on average than losing picks.
  • Lower when counting shows: losing picks had more show support on average than winning picks.
  • Similar rates: counting show support changes the overall win rate little, even if individual picks drew very different crowds.
Confidence labels: High trailed Medium in both leagues

High and Medium are labels attached to source picks. In this week's settled results, High finished behind Medium in both leagues. The labels are not calibrated win probabilities.

LeagueConfidenceRecordDecisionsWin rate
NFLhigh35-6510035.0%
NFLmedium503-582-31,08546.4%
College footballhigh82-120-220240.6%
College footballmedium345-303-564853.2%

The top five qualifying shows

Ranked by win rate among 71 shows with at least 10 settled football decisions. These are this week's records, not forecasts.

  1. 1.Tarp Sports81.8%9-2 · 11 decisions5-1 in the NFL and 4-1 in college football.
  2. 2.Bear Bets: A FOX Sports Gambling Show76.0%19-6 · 25 decisions16-3 in college football and 3-3 in the NFL.
  3. 3.Dan Patrick Takes a Gamble73.7%14-5 · 19 decisions8-2 in the NFL and 6-3 in college football.
  4. 4.All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum66.7%8-4 · 12 decisions4-3 in the NFL and 4-1 in college football.
  5. 5.VSiN College Football Betting Podcast65.4%17-9 · 26 decisionsA 26-decision college football sample.

How this report was built

Window
Picks settled September 14-20, 2026, in UTC. This frozen window does not claim to include every pick made or game played.
Decisions
One decision is one source-traced podcast pick. The week covers 428 episodes and 145 shows. Pushes appear in records but not win-rate math.
Qualification
Exact-pick comparisons use full-game spreads, totals and moneylines with a confirmed event and selection. Other picks remain in the weekly record.
Recognition
The five named shows have the highest win rates among those meeting the 10-decision minimum.
Limits
Show support does not measure money wagered or sportsbook consensus. One week cannot predict future results; varying prices and stakes do not establish profit or ROI.

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